Sunday 23 July 2023

Is the Ukrainian counter-offensive getting stuck?

There is no question that people, not just in Ukraine, had high expectations of the counter-offensive against the Russian defences which has been going on for months. This was to be the big breakthrough, the Russians would cower under the artillery barrages and troop advances and eventually retreat. Large slices of Russian-occupied territory in the east and south would be snatched back. Humiliation for Putin. Some expected this to happen quite quickly. More realistic individuals such as General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that it would take time, a long time. But the fact is, Ukraine's biggest and most-planned-for counter-offensive needed to have ap retty rapid impact if it was going to get anywhere in bringing this war to an end. That hasn't happened. The daily bulletins talk of little bits of territory liberated here and little bits there but no resounding success stories. Indeed, much of the talk has been about the incredible layers of Russian mines scattered everywhere and the huge challenge of trying to break through to reach the trenches where the Russians are concealed. The American cluster bombs that were supplied very quickly after the decision was made by Joe Biden, will eventually make a difference. But every day is a hard slog. The reason is that Ukraine is fighting a military heavyweight which has spent months preparing for Ukraine's counter-offensive. So now we have stalemate. If that continues for another three or four months, I think the judgment in Kyiv and in Washington will be that the counter-offensive has failed. Then what? There will be little incentive on either side of the war to forge a settlement. Only success on the battlefield forces the other side to seek a deal. So the war will just go on and on.

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