Sunday 16 July 2023

Has Putin got anything going for him?

Nearly everything has gone wrong for Vladimir Putin in the last 17 months and you do wonder what he thinks his options are now. The Nato summit in Vilnius will have given a little comfort because the 31 leaders of the alliance decided against offering Ukraine a timeframe for joining the western defensive organisation. But Putin knows that Ukraine will join some day and there's nothing he can do to stop it happening. So that's a big failure for him. As for the war, he and everyone else in the Russian hierarchy are keeping their fingers crossed that the Ukrainian counter-offensive which began weeks ago doesn't actually get anywhere. Ukraine's advances have been slow but there are signs that a big thrust might be on the cards very soon. If it succeeds and the Ukrainians break through the Russian defences, what then? Will the Russian troops turn and flee or dig in even more? There are reports that Russian troops are leaving from parts of Crimea because of persistent attacks on the peninsula which was annexed by Moscow in 2014. If Ukraine were to succeed in driving the Russians out of Crimea that would be the biggest humiliation of all for Putin. That's the point when the Russian leader might have to start thinking of the options left to him. Go for a settlement or full mobilisation of Russian males. Either option would be seen as desperation on his part.

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