There is no military solution to the war in Ukraine

As the first reports of Ukraine's counter-offensive emerge, it is clear that there are going to be no straightforward winners and losers. In fact it's going to be pretty impossible to know who has achieved what because of the mass of propaganda, lies and fake reports that come with every shot fired. Moscow immediately claimed the Ukrainians had attempted a mass breakthrough along the eastern front and had been pushed back causing hundreds of Ukrainian casualties. But Ukraine insisted it had broken through the Russian defensive positions in the eastern Donbas region in several places and at the same time denied this was the start of the counter-offensive. So on day one of whatever we are seeing, nothing spectacular has yet occurred and I guess this is the way it's going to be for the months ahead. It has been attritional warfare since this whole crisis began and that's the way it will continue. There will be no obvious victory in Ukraine. It will grind on. I suspect most of Nato and certainly Moscow realise this but pretend that victory IS possible - glory for Vladimir Putin on the one side or triumph for the Nato-armed and trained Ukraine as well as victory for democracy over Putinesque brutality and aggression. If only life were that simple. Meanwhile it's going to be very difficult to make an intelligent assessment of what is happening from day to day, despite all the surveillance capabilities available to the US and coalition partners. To emphasise, it won't be the generals who decide how this war will end, it will be politicians. It just depends who makes the first move.