Wednesday 7 June 2023

Why was the Kakhovka dam destroyed?

It is difficult to understand the thinking behind the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. On the surface it would seem to be a Russian operation. They were in control of the dam, so they had the means and opportunity to detonate mines or explosives to breach the dam and cause the region to be flooded. In the short term, there is a rationale because in the Russian view it would hamper the Ukrainian counter-offensive by making it difficult if not impossible for enemy armoured brigades to cross the Dnipro river to attack the Russian positions on the other side. But it also meant Russian troops were affected by flooding and in the longer term it could be disastrous for the Russian military in Crimea because they rely on the reservoir for providing water supplies to the peninsula. And if it somehow was the Ukrainians who broke the dam - not sure how - then it flooded the very region they wanted to advance rapidly through to take on the Russians. It makes no sense. The Ukrainians claim the flooding will make no difference to the counter-offensive but even if that were true, it would still be an outrageous thing to do if it was Kyiv-approved. So it's much more likely to have been a Moscow decision without too much thought given to how it might affect Crimea. That's hard to believe but this is an outrageous Moscow war and perhaps the people in the Kremlin and the ministry of defence are thinking blindly. Either way, this war is getting worse and more destructive and the risks of it turning into a wider regional war are getting more likely as the weeks go by.

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