Wednesday 28 June 2023

Can Putin trust his generals?

Ultimately Putin's long-term survival as leader in the Kremlin will depend on his inner circle of elite billionaires and former KGB partners and his generals. His two top generals seem to be on side still. That's General Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister, and General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff. Shoigu hopped over to Ukraine as soon as the bizarre non-coup by Wagner Group commander Yevgeny Prigozhin was over, presumably to reassure the troops that the war was in good hands. I doubt many of the Russian conscripts believed a word he said. But he was there as Putin's man. So Shoigu stays put. Putin hates too many changes unless he is forced to do something, so he will want to hang on to Gerasimov as well. But what about the hundreds of other generals? Are they still loyal and willing to fight on in Ukraine for Putin's sake? Well of course they would be foolish to even hint at disagreement, let alone disloyalty. Open windows in tall buildings would have to be avoided at all costs. Which is why I wonder why the New York Times has suggested that one of Putin's top generals actually knew about Prigozhin's coup plans and might have had some sympathy. The article based on US intelligence sources would seem to put this particular general in a very hazardous position, vis a vis life expentancy. I won't name him but it's all over the front page of the newspaper. Putin has demonstrated many times over the years that disloyalty/betrayal are to him like stabs in the back and he has always taken revenge. I fear for this particular general. As for Prigozhin, his days must be numbered.

No comments:

Post a Comment