Zelensky's F-16 dream will have to wait

Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky appears to wake each morning with one priority question in his mind: when will the F-16s arrive? Following the flood destruction caused by the explosions at the Kakhovka dam in Kherson, Zelensky overnight contacted US coalition allies to ask about timing for the first F-16 fighter aircraft. Nothing he has been told will have boosted his hopes that one of America’s most effective combat jets will be ready for operations against the Russian invasion forces before the end of the year. Denmark which is playing a key role in the provision of F-16s and training of Ukrainian pilots has warned that the programme will not begin until early next month and that it could take another six months for the aircraft to be ready for operations from bases in Ukraine. Could this be accelerated? US defence officials make it clear that the objective of the F-16 project is not to provide Ukraine with a war-fighting capability to back up the newly-started counter-offensive against Russian positions in the south and east of Ukraine. They say the aim is to reinforce the country’s long-term defences vis a vis any future aggression from Moscow. While this is undeniably a more realistic proposition it doesn’t satisfy Zelensky’s urgent needs for a bigger and better air force to strike at Russian defensive forces. Underlining his personal priorities for his country’s security, there is now every prospect that Australia, with US agreement, will transfer 41 mothballed F/A-18 Hornets to Ukraine. Negotiations are underway. The aircraft are updated versions, are in good condition and are stored in a hangar at an Australian air base because they are being replaced by the new-generation F-35A stealth fighter. However, Zelensky’s favoured western fighter aircraft is the F-16 Fighting Falcon because it’s faster, more agile, more manoeuvrable and smaller than the F/A-18. Both aircraft can carry a range of weapons – the Hornet more than the Fighting Falcon – and it’s the type of payload which could make a significant impact in the war in Ukraine. General Mark Milley, chairman of the US joints chiefs of staff, has warned that no aircraft, whether F-16 or other system, will be a “magic weapon” for Ukraine, pointing out that Russia has 1,000 fourth-generation fighter aircraft to confront the Ukrainian air force. However, even if the F-16 might not be a dramatic game-changer, it’s easy to see why Zelensky wants it delivered sooner than the West is promising. The F-16 can carry America’s small diameter bomb, the precision-guided GBU-53/B StormBreaker with a stand-off range of about 45 miles. The range does not compare with the UK’s Storm Shadow cruise missile (155 miles) already in service in Ukraine. But there are far more StormBreakers in stock and they are effective against semi-hardened targets. Zelensky wants these capabilities now but he knows he is going to have to wait.