Monday 24 April 2023

Trump claims the US troop withdrawal from Kabul gave Putin ideas

Donald Trump has some cheek to blame Biden's chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 for giving Putin the idea that the time was right for invading Ukraine. Trump after all gave away Afghanistan to the Taliban when he got them to sign a deal in Qatar which everyone except presumably Trump himself knew would have disastrous consequences. But Biden's administration made some fatal mistakes in the rushed troop withdrawal, especially his decision to leave no one in military uniform behind to maintain at least a semblance of security for the surrendering Kabul government. But Trump has a point, made during an interview with Fox News. The appalling scenes at Kabul airport when an Islamic State suicide bomber detonated his explosives in the midst of the crowds of desperate Afghans trying to leave the country will no doubt have been watched by Putin with a certain degree of satisfaction. But could it have inspired him to launch his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 in the expectation that the war-weary US would do nothing? It's definitely possible. It was a huge gamble but he might have thought Biden would hesitate to defend Ukraine. So he went ahead only to be shocked, I expect, when Biden of all people rounded up America's allies and partners and pledged to help the Kyiv government defend the country's sovereignty for as long as it took. So much for Putin's gamble. His second gamble of course was to assume that the mighty Russian army - what used to be called the Red Army in the bad old days - would complete the Kremlin's mission and conquer Ukraine in a matter of days. Huge mistake. And Putin has been paying for his mistake ever since. He must be so angry with Biden. All his dreams shattered by Biden's determination to stand tough. So, yes I think Trump was right to suggest the Afghanistan debacle may have persuaded Putin to plot his invasion but, as I say, the former president cannot disengage hinself from the blame for the way America's failed campaign in Afghanistah came to such an abrupt and humiliating end.

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