Saturday 8 April 2023

Could Ukraine win back Crimea?

The great Ukrainian counter-offensive which is now being plotted and planned could deliver a stunning blow to Putin. What if it involves an assault on Crimea to retake the peninsula seized and annexed without a fight by Putin in 2014? This must surely be Zelensky's dream. If he can grab back Crimea, Putin would face the gravest defeat since the first few weeks of the invasion of Ukraine when his troops failed to take control of Kyiv. The fall of Crimea could spell the end of Putin's war and perhaps of Putin himself. By all accounts Putin realises the danger and his generals have been building up defences along the beaches of Crimea to deter an amphibious landing. But Ukraine has one huge advantage. Zelensky and his generals are getting daily satellite intelligence updates from the US, so they know exactly what Putin's troops in Crimea are up to and where they are putting their defences. Crimea is stuffed with Russian troops, artillery and air defence systems, but do the troops have the will power and motivation and skill to withstand a massive Ukrainian assault? I believe this is what Kyiv plans to do because retaking Crimea would be the ultimate blow to Putin's self-esteem. He regards Crimea as the jewel in his expanionist dreams and without it his whole strategy will be ruined. It's going to be the biggest battle of the war so far.

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