Wednesday 5 April 2023

Trump's future address: White House or federal prison

It is the most extraordinary moment in the history of the United States. Donald Trump looked angry, can I say almost frightened, after his appearance in court yesterday, facing much more serious charges than we had been led to believe. And there could be a whole lot more once special counsel Jack Smith has finished his investigations into the January 6 incitement allegation and the removal of classified documents to his home. But because this is Trump and not an ordinary run-of-the-mill politician, I don't think it's absurd to predict two possible options for his future. Either the drama and outrage and sympathy will launch Trump back into the White House in November 2024 or he will be required to spend a lot of time in one of the federal prisons. There is much talk in the Washington papers that voters may now decide they have had enough of Trump and will start, or at least Republican supporters, to look elsewhere for their champion. Don't believe a word of it. Trump is not going away and if he is convicted whenever the trial on the current charges is held next year, January or later, but not sent to prison, it will probably give him the biggest boost in supporters across the country. Under such circumstances he will move so far ahead of his Republican rivals that he will win the nomination with the biggest landslide in history, and then he will overwhelm Joe Biden. And if the trial on fraud charges relating to the hush money paid to Stormy Daniels and others collapses and he is found not guilty, he might as well be given the keys to the White House straightaway. BUT if the more serious charges are levelled against him, in particular the charge of incitement to cause that appalling violence during the assault on Capitol Hill on January 6 2021, and he is convicted before November 2024 there is no way he can be given the keys to anywhere because the keys will be in the hands of his jailors. It is said that Trump could still be president from a prison cell. That has to be nonsense. Of course he can't run the country locked up in a jail. So as the headline says, Trump will win the White House or be chucked into jail.

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