Thursday 25 February 2021

Trump's political reemergence and the Sunday speech

It's all boiling up nicely for the political reemergence of Donald Trump after five weeks of golf. On Sunday he is to make a speech at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, Florida. By all accounts he is going to attack Joe Biden and place himself firmly in the Republican party power game although without actually declaring himself as a candidate for the 2024 election. He won't need to because I'm sure the audience will be shouting "four more years" as soon as he appears. This conference is a big deal for the uber-conservative elements of the Republican party and Trump will no doubt be in fine Trumpian form, preaching to the converted. He's good at stirring up the crowd, always has been, and the fact that he was defeated - yes defeated - in the 2020 election will be cast to one side. Most of those attending the conference will be of the view that the election was a case of grand theft larceny by the Democrats. So if Trump gives a nod and a wink in his speech about his 2024 thoughts, the roof will come down. One absentee it seems will be poor Nikki Haley who is now caught between two stools: breaking with Trump (as she has) and risk losing the support of every Trump fire-breathing fan, or siding with Trump (too late) and thus effectively giving up her ambitions to be a contender in 2024. Politics is so damn tricky especially when a Super Populist is still running the show even in defeat. Whatever Trump says on Sunday his voice will come out louder than Joe Biden's on any day of the week. And unfortunately loudness and brashness and fist-waving have more political impact than the quiet approach adopted by Biden. I think it's fascinating that Biden has decided to deal with Saudi Arabia only by talking to King Salman and thus ignoring his feisty Crown Pince son Mohammad bin Salman (MBS). This is principally because MBS is going to be accused in a declassified CIA report of ordering or approving the killing of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018. But even so, the fact is that MBS rules the roost in Saudi Arabia, and the king, 85, has not been a well man for some time. MBS is the new generation, the king is the old and departing generation. Even if the CIA report is devastating, MBS will still be the power beside the throne and Biden will have to learn to deal with him. None of the Khashoggi-MBS links seem to worry Trump who got his son-in-law Jared Kushner to woo the crown prince which he did. I doubt Trump will bring this up in his speech on Sunday but I bet he will remind his adoring fans that only he, Trump, knows how to deal with the toughest leaders of the world. Biden tiptoes, Trump tramples.

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