Saturday 27 February 2021

Biden's insuperable problem with Saudi Arabia

Unfortunately Crown Prince Mohammed bin Sultan, de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, is not going step down and go quietly into a tent in the desert for the rest of his days. He's the big chief in the royal kingdom and knows it, and Joe Biden will have to make up his mind how the US is going to play MBS as he is called. He, or the Saudi government, has denied any involvement in the brutal killing and body-sawing of Jamal Khashoggi, the Saudi dissident journalist whose body bits have never been uncovered but were probably dumped in the sea. The CIA says different. In its redacted report the agency says MBS approved of the operation to grab Khashoggi and eliminate him because he was a constant thorn in the side of the Saudi royal family. CIA says one thing - and thus the US government - and the Saudi government says another. There is no room for compromise here, on either side. Actually there was nothing in yesterday's published report that we didn't know already so it can hardly have come as a surprise to Riyadh. What WAS new was the Biden administration's decision to make it public - to publish a declassified version which thus placed the ball firmly in the court of the Saudi government, and in particular the Crown Prince. They kicked it back and said rubbish and fake news. Now what does Biden do? Just keep quiet and hope it all goes away? The report is out for all to see and leave it at that. I really don't see how that is going to be possible. Biden has put his marker down and if he wants to be an honest and upright president he has to deal with Saudi Arabia in a way that takes on board at all times the allegation/fact that Saudi nationals, on the orders of the de facto leader of the country, caused the brutal death of a journalist in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Well Biden has already made one important move by stopping selling arms to Saudi Arabia for its war in Yemen where weapons with US brand names have killed and maimed hundreds if not thousands of Yemeni civilians. It's very difficult to see how Saudi Arabia and the United States can remain partners/allies under these current circumstances. But Saudi Arabia and the US share a common enemy. Iran. And for that reason the US cannot afford to cast Saudi Arabia into diplomatic quarantine. Perhaps even as I write this, there are back channels being opened to make sure contacts between Washington (including the CIA) and the office of Crown Prince bin Sultan remain intact. And if so, the angry denials from the Saudis over the Khashoggi murder are all part of an agreed game plan and that life will go on. I feel desperately sorry for Khashoggi's aggrieved fiancee.

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