Monday 14 December 2020

Does Trump really want to stand in 2024?

Trump is putting it about that he is considering standing for president in 2024. Nothing's official, it's all whispers and leaked conversations and hints from the man himself. But once he leaves the White House next month and departs to Florida for an extended break, I wonder if he will really think it's a good idea to have another go. He desperately wanted two terms, but he got stuffed by Joe Biden which, by the way, I assume the Electoral College will officially confirm later today. Unless a mass of Electoral College voting officials decide arbitrarily to switch from Biden to Trump which they can't actually do by law, then it's a given that Biden will be handed the victory. If Trump accepts to himself that the college has got to be right it means that any continuing battle to wrest the presidency from Biden ain't going to work. So, it's defeat. Now one defeat is bad enough but two defeats in a row would be even worse, especially for a chap like Trump. He has to consider the possibility that if he does stand in 2024 he might be defeated again. Not just by Biden if he goes for a second term but by Republican presidential rivals who will be pushing their case. If he were to win, it would be an amazing political achievement. But the chances are surely pretty slim. And to be defeated again in 2024 would be such a blow to Trump that even his most supportive supporters will realise that he bungled. Better to hold on to whatever he thinks he achieved in his one four-year term than risk being annihilated by all the would-be 2024 candidates. It's for that reason I believe Trump will just play with the idea of standing in 2024 to keep his fans happy but at the end of the day he won't do it. I doubt Melania would stand for it. Perhaps he can build a replica of the White House in Florida and pretend that he is still president.

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