Friday 12 May 2023

Could Storm Shadow be used to break up the bridge to Crimea?

Now that the British 155-mile-range Storm Shadow cruise missile has been delivered to Ukraine, the longest-range missile supplied by the West so far, what will Zelensky do with it? There is supposedly a deal between Kyiv and London that the missile won't be fired against targets inside Russia. But that doesn't preclude Crimea being in Zelensky's plans for attacking big Russian targets previously immune from strikes. So I think Zelensky will have the Kerch Strait bridge in his sights. The Russian troops stationed in Crimea since the peninsula was annexed by Putin in 2014 depend on the bridge for everything from ammunition supplies to food. It's a prime target that has been hit before but the damage was not fatal. With Storm Shadow at his disposal, Zelensky could put the bridge out of action for months. It would be equivalent to a blockade and would be a massive blow to Putin who is determined to hang onto Crimea. The problem for the Ukrainians will be how to deliver the missile to the target. The missile was developed to be carried by a fighter aircraft. Once launched, it can fly on its own for 155 miles which reduces the threat faced by the weapon-carrying aircraft but there will still be a risk posed by the Russian air defence systems. The Storm Shadow weighs around 2,900 pounds which effectively rules out using the MiG-29 Fulcrum and Sukhoi Su-25 Grach which normally carry bombs weighing no more than 1,100 pounds. The larger Su-27 Flanker and Su-24 Fencer are the most likely aircraft to be fitted with Storm Shadow as they are used to carrying much heavier bomb payloads. Nothing in the missile deal between the UK and Ukraine stipulates that Kyiv is banned from attacking Russian targets in Crimea, as far as I am aware, because it was illegally seized by Noscow. So the Kerch Bridge and Russian troop positions in Crimea are likely to be the prime targets for the new longer-range missile.

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