Tuesday 2 May 2023

Counting the dead in Ukraine

Counting the Russian death toll in the war in Ukraine has become a top priority for western intelligence, partly, it is aassumed, to enable officials to tell the world how badly Putin is doing. The casualty figures continue to be totally staggering. According to US intelligence, and relaid by John Kirby, press spokesman for the White House National Security Council, 20,000 Russian soldiers - regular and Wagner mercenary (prison convicts) - have been killed since December, the majority during the continuing battle for the small city of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian military have openly said they are trying to kill as many Russian sodiers as possible before launching their long-awaited counter-offensive in eastern Ukraine. Is anyone in the Kremlin counting the dead? Does Putin know how many of his troops are being killed and wounded and, if so, does he have even a moment's hesitation about whether to carry or not? How long can this slaughter go on for? Obviously the Ukrainians have lost huge numbers too but the White House isn't telling. But the figure is probably not far off from the Russian death toll. But Ukraine is fighting for its sovereignty, for its nation, for its people, so the sacrifices, although horrific, will not be in vain provided Russian troops are driven out and defeated. So the big question for Putin is: as commander-in-chief, does he lose sleep over the mounting casualties from his war, does he care, and will there come a point when he realises a breaking-point has been reached? I fear the answer is NO to all these questions. He will drive on until he has carved up the whole of eastern Ukraine, never mind how many die in the process. For this reason the Ukrainian counter-offensive, when it comes, will have to be so devastatingly successful that it WILL make Putin hesitate. That's a lot to ask of the Ukrainian military who have not stopped fighting for more than 14 months.

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