Thursday 1 February 2024

Biden's only real option is to bomb

With the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declaring he doesn't want a war with the US, and the Iranian-backed militia in Iraq and Syria promising to suspend all attacks on American troops, Joe Biden might be tempted to call off retaliatory strikes for the killing of three US army reservists in Jordan. But that would probably be a mistake because Iran would think it had got away with the drone killings of three Americans. Unfortunately in so many parts of this turbulent world, force is the only option which seems to work in persudaing adversaries to stop their violent activities. Nevertheless, I suspect Biden will compromise. In other words, he won't go for the Tomahawk cruise missile strikes on the Republican Guard in Iran but will once again launch attacks on the militia forces in Iraq and Syria, but will do so in a more comprehensive way. That it hasn't happened already will be totally down to the fact that the US intelligence community hasn't yet pinpointed a target or targets which will give sigificant benefits, ie striking personnel and weapons stocks wkich will set them back and make them think twice before hitting US troops again.

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