Is Putin winning and when will the war in Ukraine end?

Ukraine is further away from winning the war against Russia than at any time since President Putin sent 360,000 troops across the border on February 24 two years ago. Putin’s objective of seizing control of the whole country and placing a pro-Moscow regime in Kyiv has not changed. Nor has Ukraine’s determination to preserve its sovereignty at whatever cost and to persuade the US and allies to continue backing Ukrainian forces with advanced weaponry and munition supplies to stop the Russians in their tracks and prevent them from further aggression in the wider region. So, after 24 months of fighting, is there any hope of the war coming to an end in 2024 or is a prolonged stalemate with the inevitable collateral of higher casualties and greater destruction the only realistic future for Ukraine? *Does Russia have the upper hand? The year has begun well for Moscow. The capture of Avdiivka in Donbas, albeit a town destroyed by Russian bombardment, marks a significant territorial win for Moscow. Russian troops have been trying to capture it since October and succeeded for two reasons – the Ukrainian defensive forces began running out of artillery shells, and the soldiers were exhausted after two years of fighting. In two years, the Russian military in Ukraine have been forced to adapt their mission strategy as a result of extraordinary lapses in war planning back in Moscow; notably the failure to take into account the Ukrainian army’s stubborn refusal to back down and the absence of any preparation for a confrontation lasting longer than a few weeks. The early commitment of President Biden to provide arms for Kyiv and to build a coalition of more than 50 countries to help Ukraine defend itself will have taken Putin by surprise. But the Russian leader always knew time was on his side and he gambled that help from the West might dry up if there was no quick victory for Kyiv. The continued impasse in US Congress over Biden’s $60 billion aid package for Ukraine has not only dealt a massive blow to Kyiv’s forces fighting with dwindling munition supplies but has also boosted Putin’s hopes that the fall of Avdiivka will be followed by further setbacks for the Ukrainian military. Unquestionably, Putin will fight on. He has little reason to pursue a peace settlement, even if Kyiv were to relent and accept territorial losses as part of a deal. *Could Ukraine defeat Russia? The much-heralded counter-offensive, launched in June, 2023, was intended to break through the Russian defences and win back the initiative. But the Russian military, under a succession of new commanders, had learnt the key lesson which was to focus on building massive defensive structures and laying minefields to stall the Ukrainian advances. Ukraine’s counter-offensive ground to a halt. However, the use of long-range missiles, underwater drones and special forces has led to a series of devastating attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea and against warships in the Black Sea. Nearly two dozen Russian ships have been damaged or destroyed in two years. Assuming Biden’s $60 billion defence package will eventually win Congress approval, Kyiv will suddenly be blessed with an array of weaponry capable of posing a long-lasting threat to Putin’s invasion forces. Some of the weaponry in the pipeline, notably F-16 fighter jets and up to a million bomber drones, could swing the war back in Kyiv’s favour. However, President Zelensky has sacked the one man popular enough in the army to inspire success on the battlefield. The replacement of General Valerii Zaluzhnyi as commander-in-chief of the armed forces with Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky seems unlikely to lead to a new strategy capable of achieving victory on the battlefield. *Could the election of Donald Trump as US president in November change everything? Trump has said he would bring the war in Ukraine to an end in 24 hours. He hasn’t revealed exactly what he has in mind. But it would probably start with a phone to call to Putin, and that would raise alarms not only in Kyiv but throughout Europe.