Thursday 15 February 2024

Putin going nuclear in space?

President Putin has a deep interest in exotic weapons, or superoruzhie (super weapons), demonstrated by his public enthusiasm for hypersonic missiles as well as nuclear-armed cruise missiles and torpedoes with allegedly unlimited range. Placing nuclear devices into orbit, potentially targeting America’s satellite systems, would be the latest example of Russia’s growing aggressive capabilities and would transform space into a new battlefield domain. It would force the US to develop and deploy new space-based counter-measures, adding another dangerous ingredient to the big-power arms race. Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are all investing heavily in space-related capabilities, especially anti-satellite weapons, posing a grave threat to America’s global satellite communications network upon which all branches of the US military depend for navigation, precision strikes and command and control. Russia already has an aggressive anti-satellite capability. It has conducted at least one confirmed test of a space-based anti-satellite weapon. In one incident, a mini-satellite was launched from its mother “ship” armed with a projectile that was then test-fired. Russian satellites have also been manouevred close to US satellites in a threatening manner. In 2021, Russia conducted a ground-launched anti-missile test on one of its own satellites, breaking it up into hundreds of pieces. Why would Russia take the next step and weaponise space systems with nuclear devices? The radiation from a nuclear explosion in space would destroy all satellites within line of sight of the detonation. It could have a devastating impact on US communications and early warning systems. In space, the lack of air would mean that the main destructive effect of a nuclear explosion would come from the radiation which travels through space at the speed of light. US satellites are hardened to withstand kinetic attacks and electronic jamming but would be defenceless against a targeted nuclear strike. Launching nuclear weapons into orbit would be a gross violation of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, signed by Russia. Among other agreed principles, the treaty bans the placing of nuclear weapons “or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or on celestial bodies or station them in outer space”. The potential ability to put nuclear weapons into orbit was dramatically demonstrated by the Chinese in 2021. Beijing launched a long-range missile that flew around the world and dropped off a hypersonic glide vehicle which travelled in low orbit all the way back to China and impacted about 24 miles from a designated target. The US military said it looked like a “first-use weapon”, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Beijing denied it. The technology was not new. It was pioneered by the Soviet Union in the 1960s and was then known as the fractional orbital bombardment system (Fobs). The successful 2021 Chinese test, however, and now the possibility of a Russian plan to launch a nuclear-armed anti-satellite system into space have underlined the future nightmare security challenges facing the US and its western allies.

No comments:

Post a Comment