Wednesday 25 January 2023

Zelensky gets what he has been asking for for months

Heavy battle tanks have become the crucial weapon system for Kyiv as the fighting has ground to a stalemate war of attrition. The priority for the Ukrainian forces is to break through Russian defences that have been built up in the Donbas region over the last few months and seize back territory occupied by Moscow’s invasion forces. For these two operations, they need advanced tanks. So far, a White House source said, Russia had shown no inclination to hold meaningful negotiations, nor to withdraw its invasion forces. “So our role, as we see it, is to help the Ukrainians defend their country for as long as it takes in order for them to be in as strong a position as possible for negotiations with Russia to end the war,” the source said. Until now Nato has supplied Russian-made T-72s held by eastern European members of the alliance. While effective they have not given Ukraine the technological and operational edge they need to overcome Russia’s armoured forces. The US Abrams M1A1 and M1A2 tanks and Germany’s Leopard 2s now being proposed after months of indecision will provide that extra capability. But will they arrive in time to confront the anticipated Russian spring offensive in March or April? The Abrams is the most potent tank in the world and has been battle-tested like no other armoured vehicle. Only nine Abrams have been destroyed in war and seven of those were in error in friendly-fire incidents. The other two were destroyed to avoid capture during the Iraq war in 2003. The Abrams, however, is a complex piece of kit and is powered by gas turbines. It is also filled with highly sensitive equipment which creates maintenance challenges. Even experienced Ukrainian tank operators will require months of training with a logistical back-up team on constant readiness. The Pentagon has been reluctant to offer the Abrams claiming that it would not be an appropriate system for Ukraine. In fact the fuel issue is not a huge obstacle. The Abrams can run on all sorts of fuel, including jet fuel, diesel and petrol. With 490 gallons in the tanks, it can run for 265 miles without refuelling, a significant asset on the battlefield. It can also travel at 45mph. However, the Leopard 2s are more likely to be ready for service before the Abrams, and the focus will be on getting these advanced tanks into the field as quickly as possible. Like the Abrams, it is a 55-tonne tank but has a longer range, about 310 miles, and can reach speeds of 42mph. Both the US and German tanks have a 120mm smooth bore gun fitted with a fully digital fire control system, facilitating accurate shell launches on the move. There are so many Leopard 2s of different models in Europe – at least 2,000 – that it’s possible Ukraine will eventually get the 300 or so tanks it says it needs to make a significant difference on the battlefield – and all of them will be Leopards, apart from the 14 UK Challenger 2s already pledged. With so many tanks en route to Ukraine, the challenge will be to deliver them safely without being targeted by Russian bombers, drones and long-range missiles. Road and rail routes into Ukraine from Poland, Germany and Slovakia will be used. Until now Russian strikes have failed to have any impact on Nato’s weapons supply routes. Abrams tanks are not going to be seen on the battlefield in Ukraine for a long time, possibly not even by the end of this year. But America’s decision to send them has provided the political cover the Berlin government needed before announcing the dispatch of Leopard 2s.

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