Monday 30 January 2023

The Ukraine war is approaching acute danger time

As the war in Ukraine relentlessly approaches its first anniversary, even Vladimir Putin must be thinking: what the hell is going on? It's certainly not what he signed up for. But the US and the rest of Nato must also be wondering: how much longer do we have to prop up Ukraine with billions and billions and billions of dollars worth of arms? Basically no one thought initially that this war was going to drag on for years. But unless something pretty dramatic happens, like one side or the other capitulates which isn't going to happen, this war IS going to go on for years. In 11 and a bit months Nato and partners but mostly the US have sent air-defence systems, armoured vehicles, howitzers, drones, multiple-launch rocket systems, millions of shells and ammunition, mortars etc and now tanks and Patriot missile batteries. And there is huge pressure to up the ante even more by sending fighter aircraft. One Ukrainian official even suggested submarines. I mean, what IS going on? Has there been a war like this before? If this carries on for another three years, Ukraine will be one of the best-armed nations in the universe and Nato's stocks of weapons will be so diminished that China will mount an invasion of Taiwan and get away with it. Ok, that's a bit over the top, but there is a serious risk here that what is happening in Ukraine vis a vis western arms flows will benefit the likes of China. All they are doing is giving Putin moral support and waiting for the West to exhaust itself. Yes, there are serious dangers here. This war needs to be brought to an end. And fast.

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