Sunday 1 January 2023

Lots of reasons why Biden might not want to stand again

I'm not saying Joe Biden won't stand again. In fact I am pretty sure he will and we will know for sure when he makes his announcement in the next few weeks. However, there are many reasons why he might not want to hold one of the toughest political jobs in the world for another four years. First, he will be approaching 82 during the most critical and exhausting part of the presidential campaign. At that age there will surely come moments when he might wish he could go home and put his feet up and watch some rubbish tv rather than prep for yet another boring rallying speech. Age is a defining thing even when you think you are the youngest octogenarian on the planet. Biden can, let's face it, look pretty dogdery on occasions. But he defnitely won't want to decide against standing because of his age. There would have to be other reasons and here they are: the war in Ukraine will get tougher and more dangerous for the world as 2023 progresses and if it's still going on in 2024, Biden may find his whole time will be taken up with trying to bring the slaughter to an end without risking a Third World War. He's doing that now but this challenge will get more and more complex and threatening the longer the war lasts. Will he be able to face the stresses and strains of confrontation with Putin as he begins a new presidential term in January 2025? Then there's the prospect of having his legislative programme over the next two years hammered into the ground by the Republicans who take majority control of the House of Representatives next month. Two years of wrangling with Congress will be exhausting, frustrating and possibly demotivating. Another thought is that if Biden decides against standing again he can spend his time safeguarding his legacy as a one-term president without putting it all at risk by having another four years. Right now his presidency has enough going for it to guarantee him a pretty decent legacy. His uniting of Nato against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the chunk of legislation he managed to get through Congress and his general niceness should all help to give him a decent send-off after four years in the White House but might not last into another four years. I'm sure Biden and his whole family are going over the same arguments at this very moment but in the end the current president will more than likely want to be the next president.

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