Wednesday 1 June 2022

Putin's biggest blow - European unity

Putin made so many assumptions when he launched his invasion of Ukraine: he was confident the Ukrainians would crumble rapidly and Kyiev would be his within weeks, he thought his trump card - blackmailing Europe into insignificance by piling on the gas and oil pressure points - was a winner, he reckoned Joe Biden was too weak to stand up to him, and he believed his constant implied threat to launch nuclear weapons, whether tactical or otherwise, would scare the West into disarray. None of these assumptions have worked out for him and now he is faced with America's boldest move, sending long-range multiple-launch rocket systems to strike at his artillery, as well as Europe's ban on 90 per cent of Russian oil exports. Nothing has gone accoding to plan since the invasion of February 24. Putin's worst nightmare is Europe. The economy of Russia is dependent on selling oil and gas to Europe but European leaders, with the exception of Hungary's autocratic Viktor Orban, have not given into Putin's blackmail. Putin is now at war with Ukraine and the whole of Europe. It's not World War Three, as some people have suggested, but it's a European war which Putin is going to lose one way or the other because no one, apart from Orban, is ever going to want to talk to the Russian leader, let alone do business with him, in the future. Putin is finished as far as Europe is concerned. He should be seriously worried. He may think he is making progress in eastern Ukraine but it's the tiniest of victories because he knows he has lost the wider war. Europe is united and against him. For ever.

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