Tuesday, 7 June 2022

Is Boris kaputski?

Boris is having a good war. Volodymyr Zelensky loves him. When the Ukrainian leader asks for more weapons, like every day, Boris is almost first in line to send him what he wants. So his "win" in the confidence vote in parliament was received with relief and admiration in Kyiv. But here in Blighty, Boris is seen to be kaputski, at the beginning of a road that leads with his removal from Number 10. He may have won the vote but so many Tory MPs went against him Boris knows that almost half his parliamentary party is opposed to him and will be clamouring for him to be sacked as prime minister over the next few months. Will Boris survive beyond Christmas or will the scheming Tories change the rules and force a second no-confidence vote in the near future? Boris's favourite comment is to say that he wants to "get on with the job" and "make sure he delivers what he promised at the last election". But I fear he will find it even more difficult now to persuade his rebellious party to back him. Yet, somehow, I suspect Boris will survive for longer than people think. Provided he can keep a united cabinet behind him he will plough on like a bull in a china shop and the rebels will be treated with disdain and accused of acting unpatriotically. He might just succeed in sweeping away these whingeing Tories and achieve whatever he wants to achieve. He might still do it, especially when you look at the likely replacements for the Number 10 job: Liz Truss, please save me, Dominic Raab, never, Jeremy Hunt, decent but fairly hopeless, Rishi Sunak, ok but not now, Sajid Javid, can't work him out, Priti Patel, God help us, Ben Wallace, sound and steady but not inspirational, Michael Gove, strangely quiet these days. So, with this lot waiting in the wings, Boris will feel fairly confident that he can outstay them all and keep his nameplate on Number 10. So kaputski? Yes, but not this year and may be not next year either.

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