Monday 20 June 2022

Who is going to blink first: Putin or Nato, or are we facing a forever war?

There is no obvious end to the war in Ukraine. There is no chance either side can at any time declare victory, and defeat, as in the defeat and surrender of Ukraine, is also not going to happen. So what we do have is a potentially long war with neither side winning, millions of casualties, wholesale destruction of towns and cities and infrastructure, ruined economies in Ukraine and Russia, rocketing cost of living for the West and the total isolation of the biggest country in the world - 11 per cent of the planet's landmass - armed with thousands of nuclear weapons. All of which spells disaster! So what on earth are we to do? How can this war end, soon? Are there any options which might be seen to be feasible? Right now, there is no scenario for ending the war which is going to please or appease everyone or, indeed, anyone. Absolutely not. So the only possible options are the following: Option One - Putin is toppled, either through ill health or because the Moscow elite/rich feel sufficiently threatened to do something about the leader who is slowly destroying Russia. Option Two - Nato sends several armoured divisions into Ukraine, supported by a huge array of fighter aircraft and bombers and pushes the Russian army out of the country and back into Russia, just like the US-led coalition did to the Iraqi army when they occupied Kuwait in 1990. Option Three - Nato warships lift the blockade of the Black Sea and clear up all the mines and guarantee safe passage for all Ukraine's exports. None of these options look likely, so the war and the annihilation of Ukraine by Russia's brutality will continue for years whatever arms the West sends to help the Ukrainians attempt to defend their country.

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