Tuesday, 31 May 2022

Maybe the defeat of Russia IS the only option

For weeks some of the West's biggest brains who think stragetically on the world's major crises have been advocating a deal with Russia. If there is no deal of any kind then the war will go on for years, the economies of the world will be severely damaged and there will be starvation in the poorest countries. I tended to agree with this scenario because in the end most wars finish with a negotiated deal. Zelensky has been saying this for a long time. However unsavoury it seems, Putin has to be persuaded to stop the war but inevitably he will want something in return and that means he would be rewarded for his aggression. Unpalatable? Yes. Realistic? Unfortunately. But I'm coming round to the view that if Europe is to enjoy any kind of peace and stability for the next few generations, Putin cannot and must not be granted any concessions. If the Donbas region falls into Russian hands and Putin is allowed to annexe the territory and turn it into Russian motherland what will he do next? Would territorial concessions to Putin put him off seeking other gains elseswhere or would he be satisfied with what he has got? Putin is not a man to be satisfied with limited gains. He will want more. I was struck by the admirable comments made by Arturs Krisjanis Karins, prime minister of Latvia, in an interview with Politico. He said the defeat of Putin was the only option if Europe is to have a meaningful future. Ukraine must win, with the West's help, and Putin must lose. It's a strong and forceful argument and I believe he is probably right, although the consequences of a long war with thousands more casualties hardly bear thinking about. More importantly, thousands of Ukrainians have already sacrificed their lives to fight the Russians. What would it mean for their families and for the Ukrainian soldiers still defending their country every day if a deal was forced on the Kyiv government that entailed handing over parts of the country to the aggressors? Now that the EU has agreed to ban all shipments of oil from Russia by the end of the year - leaving only pipeline oil to go to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic - Putin's war is going to bring more and more economic suffering to the Russian people. So now is not the time to talk about deals but to pile on the pressure on the Russian leader and to make him fear that he could actually lose this war.

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