Thursday 26 May 2022

Is peace possible in Ukraine while Putin is in power?

Volodymir Zelensky said only diplomacy can end the war in Ukraine. Henry Kissinger caused a right royal rumpus when he said at Davos that a deal would have to include ceding some territory to Russia. Zelensky was furious and called Kissinger an appeaser. But whether you like Realpolitic or not, even Zelensky knows that if there is ever to be a peace deal there is absolutely no likelihood of Moscow agreeing to anything that involves reversing everything to the status quo ante the invasion - ie all Russian troops back in Russia like before February 24. So what exactly does Zelensky mean by diplomacy? He has made it clear that no peace deal could ever involve losing any part of Ukraine. He forgets of course that that has already happened when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Zelensky never mentions that. I am totally on his side: of course it would be terrible and a betrayal of the brave Ukrainians who have given up their lives to fight the Russians if some future peace deal did involve sacrificing land. But in reality how else could there ever be a so-called peace deal? What would be the end product of a negotiated settlement? Has Zelensky got a plan? The truth is if Zelensky has nothing to offer Moscow, then the war will go on for ever and as Kissinger pointed out this would be calamitous for the whole world, not just Ukraine. There are only three options: a negotiated end to the war, whatever that might mean, Russian defeat and humiliation or Ukraine defeat and subjugation. The third option would be catastrophic for Europe and for the world and would probably lead to further Russian invasions. The second option would take so long, given Putin's readiness to lose troops and tanks without the blink of an eye, that the war will be with us for decades. And humiliation for Putin in Ukraine might provoke him to do something dangerously stupid. Only the first option raises even a prospect of bringing the war to a close. I hope someone somewhere is drawing up a proposal right now.

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