Tuesday 17 May 2022

Odesa next in Russia's sights

Mariupol has finally fallen. The city is basically destroyed, a pile of rubble, a place not fit for human habitation thanks to relentless shelling and bombing by the Russians, most of it indiscriminate. It is no longer a city but a mausoleum for the brave Ukrainian fighters who fought for three months to keep it from falling into Putin's hands. The last 264 o so Ukrainian fighters, many of them seriously wounded, were finally allowed to leave the steelworks where they had carried out their last stand, although their future is uncertain as they are now in Russian custody. The next target for Putin must be Odesa, the key port on the Black Sea which Ukraine has to hold because of its importance for the country's export trade. Odesa is roughly 1,000 kilometres by road from Mariupol, so Ukraine will have to make sure the route to the port is ambushed all the way along. The greatest threat will be posed by Russian cruise missiles on board diesel-electric submarines out in the Black Sea which are invulnerable to attack. Nato will have to supply the best-available air and sea defence systems to keep Odesa away from Putin's ambitious hands. Without Odesa Ukraine will starve and the rest of the world will be affected because of the vital export from Ukraine of sunflower oil and grain. Odesa has to be saved. It cannot go the way of Mariupol. If Odesa falls, Ukraine will effectively become a land-locked nation and Putin will win.

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