Thursday 12 May 2022

Gauntlet thrown down to Putin: take on Nato if you dare

The language is getting stronger and more dangerous between the US and Russia. First Lloyd Austin, US defence secretary, said the plan was to weaken the Russian military to prevent them planning further aggresion in the future and then he told Congress that Putin better not think about taking on Nato. He doesn't want to do that, Austin said. It's all tough rhetoric of course but somehow I don't think Putin will be deterred by such warnings because he knows that the western alliance will always be worried about Russia's huge nuclear weapons stockpile. It's the biggest deterrent of all. So Austin's warning to Putin is fine to remind the Russia leader that in a conventional war of any scale Russia would be defeated there remains the nuclear issue. Putin has already said that if he feels Russia is facing an existential threat, nuclear weapons would be used. Austin of course was not in any way saying that Nato would attack Russia, but what he was implying was that if Putin were to order his forces to attack a Nato country, he would seriously regret it. Again, that's fine. But Putin is clearly contemplating all kinds of future action. Avril Haines, director of US national intelligence, said as much to Congress yesterday. She said the intelligence community believed Putin might well extend his ambitions beyond Ukraine. If that were to include military offensives against, for example, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, then there would indeed be a full-scale war between Nato and Russia, including nuclear. Austin's warning should have sent shivers down Putin's back. But I just don't think Putin cares or scares easily. He began this war in Ukraine to revive the Soviet empire and throw off the encroaching Nato boundaries. Will he risk taking on Nato? Absolutely.

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