Tuesday 18 January 2022

US says commitment to Ukraine is "unshakeable". What does that mean?

It's always dangerous in this world for one country to say to another that they will be there for them come what may. Especially when the one is the United States and the other is Ukraine. Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, who has been travelling all over the place to demonstrate America's support for Ukraine in the face of a potential massive invasion of the country by the Russian army. Today he has stated that America's commitment to Ukraine is "unshakeable". It's a good word but in the end what exactly does it mean? If Russia invades will the US 82nd Airborne Division drop by parachute into Kyiv and advance rapidly to fight the Russians? Will B-2 Spirit bombers from Missouri take off and bomb the 100,000 Russian troops as they make their way over the border? Will US Special Operations Command deploy hundreds of elite troops to fight alongside the Ukrainian army. Will US heavy armour in Germany be shipped to Ukraine to battle it out with Russian tanks? I don't think any of these things will happen? Because if anything like this did happen there would be all-out war with Russia and the whole of Nato would be dragged in, and heaven knows how that would end. The truth is, if Russia does invade Ukraine, that unshakeable commitment could only be exhibited in other ways, non-military ways. Unless Blinken has a secret card up his sleeve. He is seeing the Ukrainian president during his latest travels. Will he perhaps put Nato membership for Ukraine at the top of his agenda. Now there's a thought. Blinken could tell his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, that if Moscow invades Ukraine, Nato leaders would instantly offer alliance membership to Kyiv which would be the worst of all worlds for the Kremlin because then Nato would be able, indeed obliged, to station troops and armour in Ukraine. It's not a bad idea and I'm sure Ukraine would be delighted. The trouble is that sort of ultimatum might actually spur Putin to go ahead and invade anyway just to keep Nato out. But then that would mean occupying Ukraine for ever and there is no way either Putin or the Russian public would accept that. Whatever Putin is thinking right now, that word "unshakeable" will have made him also wonder, what the hell does it mean.

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