Nobody in Russia knows what's in Putin's head

So yet another crisis meeting between the US and Russia over Ukraine and the threat of a Moscow-ordered invasion. Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, and Sergey Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, have met in Geneva to go over the same old ground without any sign of a breakthrough. But both Blinken and Lavrov have one thing in common. Neither has a clue whether Putin will authorise an invasion. The decision rests solely with Putin and as far as we know he hasn't yet imparted to Lavrov or any of his other ministers what is in his mind from day to day. All Putin has instructed Lavrov to repeat endlessly is that Russia nas no intention of invading Ukraine! If that were true, what on earth is this massive offensive force doing sitting on the border with Ukraine ready to venture across and cause mayhem? Ok, I understand that Putin is playing a deadly game, hoping that his display of aggression-in-waiting will persuade Nato to do his bidding and promise to refuse membership of the alliance to Ukraine and pull out all alliance troops and tanks from eastern Europe. But if, as seems likely, Nato continues to refuse to meet his demands, then what will he do? As Joe Biden very unhelpfully said in the White House press conference this week, Putin has to do something. But Lavrov doesn't know what that will be, nor, I suspect, does Putin's defence minister, General Sergei Shoigu. Russia is a country isolated in many ways from the rest of the world, or at least feels isolated, still suffering from Cold War paranoia. But Putin is isolated within the Kremlin. He is the top guy and being a former KGB spy he keeps everything to himself. Lavrov must wake up every morning and wonder what the hell the day is going to bring. Quite tricky to play the top diplomat on behalf of the country when he doesn't know what his boss is thinking. Putin could suddenly decide he has had enough of the West and order his 100,000 troops into Ukraine, to hell with the consequences. Or he could suddenly decide to do the opposite and end the crisis. It could go either way. But if he gets absolutely zilch from Nato in return for adopting the latter of the two options, he could change his mind again and go for broke - a full-scale invasion.