Nato on standby to reinforce eastern Europe

Thousands of reinforcement combat troops could be sent to boost Nato’s military presence in eastern Europe if Russia invades Ukraine. Contingency planning has been underway for weeks as Moscow’s build-up of troops, missiles and rocket launchers continued along the Ukrainian border. President Biden’s implied suggestion that a minor incursion rather than a full invasion might lead to a lower-scale response by Nato has not affected the alliance’s military planning. In the event of an alliance political decision to go ahead with reinforcing Nato’s eastern European members to deter any Russian encroachment on their territory, rapid steps would be taken to fly out extra troops and equipment to strengthen the four multinational battle groups stationed in Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. “Whilst we are not able to comment on operational matters, recent comments from the [Nato] secretary-general [Jens Stoltenberg] in Berlin underscore the guiding principle that Nato will always act to defend and protect alliance members,” a Nato spokesman said. “Since 2014, Nato has made its largest ever increase to its collective defence as a response to the aggressive behaviour of the Russian Federation,” the spokesman said. “This includes tripling the size of the Nato response force and increasing Nato’s presence in the eastern part of the alliance through the creation of the enhanced forward presence battle groups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland,” he said. There are currently just under 5,000 troops from 20 Nato members based in the four countries regarded as the most vulnerable to Russian aggression. The four armoured battle groups are led by the UK in Estonia, by Canada in Latvia, by Germany in Lithuania and by the US in Poland. “Their presence makes clear that an attack on one ally will be considered an attack on the whole alliance,” the Nato spokesman said. Reinforcements could also be sent to Nato’s multinational brigade of 5,000 troops in Craiova, Romania. The brigade consists mainly of Romanian troops but also has contributions from Poland and Bulgaria. Nato has two dedicated quick-reaction forces available which could be sent to provide an instant extra presence in the region if it was felt necessary. These are the 40,000-strong Nato response force, with elements held at varying levels of readiness, and a component of this large-scale military organisation called the very high-readiness joint task force (VHRJTF), with 20,000 troops. Overall command of the Nato response force belongs to General Tod Wolters, the US supreme allied commander Europe. The Nato spokesman said the 20,000-strong very high-readiness joint task force included land, air, maritime and special operations components and was formed around the 3,500-strong Franco-German Brigade, and France’s rapid reaction corps based in Lille. The spokesman said leading elements of the high-readiness force were “ready to move within two to three days”. Other military options for Nato include sending more warships to the Baltic and Black Seas and additional fighter jets for combat air patrols over the Baltic states, Poland and Romania. Nato agreed to establish a forward presence in eastern and south-eastern alliance territory and in the Black Sea region at a summit in Warsaw in 2016, after Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine in 2014. The four battle groups are defined as “combat-ready forces”, and it was always envisioned that they could be rapidly reinforced in a time of crisis. In 2016 a Rand Corporation report warned that for Nato to resist a Russian attack on the Baltic states the alliance would need about seven brigades including three heavy armoured brigades, supported by air power. Biden ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine. However, there are a limited number of Nato training units currently in Ukraine. These include about 200 US National Guard soldiers who are training and advising local forces. There are no plans to augment these troops. There is also a small number of Green Beret special forces training their counterparts in the Ukrainian army. It’s not clear whether they would stay in Ukraine if Russia invaded. The UK has 30 soldiers in Ukraine training Ukrainian units how to fire the anti-tank weapons delivered this week. The UK has supplied 2,000 anti-tank launchers.