Saturday 8 January 2022

Blinken wants to know why Russian troops are in Kazakhstan

Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, wants to know why Russian troops are now helping to end violent protests in Kazakhstan. In fact he is as good as saying the Russians have no need or right to be in Kazakhstan. Now we don't know what went on between President Putin and his Kazakh counterpart President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. It was reported the Kazakh leader had appealed for Moscow's help but for all we know Putin rang him first and told him to ask for Russian troops as a sort of notice to Biden and Nato that Russia too has an alliance and that each member can call on another for military assistance. I suspect that's what it's about, especially coinciding with the imminent talks to take place between US and Russian officials in Geneva tomorrow over Ukraine and Nato's expanding membership hopes. But actually, under the treaty signed between Russia and her neighbours, the main purpose is to provide collective security and that includes the right for one member nation to go to the aid of another, a bit like Nato's Article 5. So it's a little strange for Blinken to cast doubt on why Russian troops are now in the Kazakh capital. But I know what he has in mind. The Kazakh president has all the troops and security apparatus he needs to quell riots but obviously he thought the presence of Russian troops would have more impact and at the same time give him a warm glow that his friend Putin is ready to rush to his aid when he calls. It's all about politics and signal-sending, none of which should surprise Blinken. But then I suppose Blinken is also trying to get his messaging in before the Geneva talks. Judging by the remarks by Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, Putin has no chance of persuading the western alliance to stop its expanding mission embracing Ukraine. Personally I think it would be madness to bring Ukraine into full Nato membership. Think up some other form of exclusive partnership but having Ukraine benefting from Article 5 under which all members have to defend another member under attack could lead to a conventional war between the US and Nato allies and Russia with its treaty alliance members.

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