Is Western intelligence right to be warning of an imminent invasion

Certainly all the signs from the Ukraine/Russia border are that Vladimir Putin is just moments away from ordering an invasion of Ukraine. Judging by remarks from Boris Johnson and others the latest secret intelligence landing on their desks is scary stuff. That may well be based on sound analysis of satellite images but does it take into account Putin himself? The Russian leader is thinking long term. What will he achieve if he invades, what will he achieve if he doesn't invade? He hasn't made up his mind yet which way to go but in the meantime he lets his soldiers prepare the ground for a lightning raid as Boris put it. Does the Western intel include top secret communications between the Kremlin and the Russian ministry of defence, is there an insider agent spilling the beans? This is all James Bond stuff but even if this is actually happening right now can the intelligence really be trusted? One thing Putin is good at is spreading false information and propaganda. So whatever Boris and Biden and co have been reading in the last few days from reports marked For Their Eyes Only, how much of it is absolutely 100 per cent accurate and how much is based on Putinised clever tricks? Putin now knows that if he orders an invasion, the 40,000-strong Nato Response Force will be deployed to Eastern Europe and the Baltics and, who knows, eventually a shipload of tanks and armoured vehicles setting up shop in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland which surely is the one thing the Russian president is trying to stop. So it might make him think twice or it might make him even more determined to invade, as I blogged recently on the question of Nato arming Ukraine to defend itself against Russia. On the face of it, Putin wants Ukraine to be under Russia's wing, controllable and loyal to Moscow, like the good old days. But will an invasion, involving potentially having a Moscow puppet leader in Kyiv, give him what he wants or will it lead to decades of insurgency, instability and increasing trouble back home? Long term that could be disastrous for him and for the well-being of Russia. These are the questions that must be filling his mind right now. I wonder how much of this deliberation is included in the Western intelligence reports that appear to be suggesting Putin is dead set on military action, and soon.