Wednesday 19 May 2021

How much influence has the US these days?

The US is still an economic and military superpower and despite all the gainsayers over recent years who have claimed that America is on the decline, I doubt things are going to change significantly in the next decade or so, even as China rises and rises. But how much real influence, diplomatically, does the US have today in resolving crises. Joe Biden has adopted the "speak quietly" mode of diplomacy as opposed to Donald Trump's megaphone rhetoric. But is this approach working, for exmaple with Benjamin Netanyahu? Biden has had several calls with the Israeli prime minister and in the latest one he urged Netanyahu to "significantly deescalate" the situation vis a vis Gaza as of today. But Unless Biden added an "or else" warning, Netanyahu will carry on as he has for the last ten days, striking back heavily every time Hamas fires more rockets from Gaza. In fact Israel has said there is no question of a ceasefire right now. So I guess that means Biden didn't add an "or else". The or-else warning would be pretty meaningless because there is no way a US president is going to threaten to withdraw military help for Israel or support a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israel. Neither of those things are ever going to happen. The US is committed to ensuring that Israel retains a technological military edge over all adversaries, and it's difficult to envisage any US administration siding with China and Russia in criticising Israel. So in terms of Israel and the Israel-Palestine issue, the US has very little influence. Quiet words or strong words - Barack Obama wasn't always nice to Netanyahu - will land on deaf ears if Israel is in the middle of a security crisis. The Israeli attacks on Gaza will stop when the Netanyahu government decides it is right and safe to do so, not when the US says so. Netanyahu knows that Biden is not going to break with tradition and will always stick to the agreed line which is that the US supports Israel to defend itself. The "deescalate today" message will be embarrassing for Biden if Netanyahu sticks to his guns and ignores worldwide pressure to call a halt to the military action.

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