Saturday 9 May 2020

Trump snub to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman?

The US suddenly decides to withdraw F-15s and Patriot missile batteries from protecting key installations in Saudi Arabia. Is that a redeployment decision to put these weapon systems in other places where they are needed most or is Donald Trump stamping his foot and ordering the Pentagon to remove these aircraft and anti-missile batteries to punish Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for personally creating an oil supply catastrophe right in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic? I support the latter reason. The F-15s and Patriots were sent urgently to Saudi Arabia after the devastating drone and cruise missile attack by Iran on one of its main oil processing plants. It was devastating because it was incredibly accurate and well coordinated and not only temporarily crippled the plant but caused a massive impact on oil prices and supply. Now, it is argued, especially after the drone-attack killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's foreign arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, these protective systems are no longer needed because Iran has gone quiet. Well that's asking for trouble from Tehran. One of the reasons why Iran has gone quiet is that the country is hit with the coronavirus pandemic like everyone else. MBS as he is rather affectionately called - though without actual affection - started the oil drama when he decided to go to oil war with Russia abd began pumping out oil at a vast rate. In a short time there was a huge over-supply of oil, the price of a barrel of oil fell to zero and the world economy shuddered - on top of the economic crisis caused by coronavirus. The combination was lethal. Trump must have fumed. Here was his so-called Middle East friend playing god with oil prices when the world economy was desperately in need of some form of stability. Trump reportedly warned MBS at the end of April to cut oil supply or lose his US military protection. A deal of sorts was struck and there was a 10 per cent reduction in oil supply in the world but huge damage was done. Russia's economy, so reliant on decent oil prices, took a dive. So is Trump now reminding MBS that whatever he does the US holds the ultimate card: American military protection. MBS has already pushed his luck with Trump on a number of occasions, notably the killing of Saudi dissident journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018, and perhaps Trump thoght it was time to teach him a lesson. It is obviously denied in Washington. It's just a routine redeployment. There is no such thing as a routine redeployment in the Middle East. Every military move is spiced wth politics, warnings, threats, ultimatums and finger-waving. MBS has just had the Trump finger-waving warning.

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