Saturday 2 May 2020

Is this the month of lockdown restrictions lifting?

Even Boris Johnson, the only leader in the world to have been in intensive care suffering from severe coronavirus, is now contemplating when to start lifting lockdown. I can't imagine the pressure he must be under from business leaders and from his own Chancellor (Finance Minister) Rishi Sunak to let people go back to work, but despite his understandable caution he has two responsbilitie: to keep people safe from the virus and also to get the economy going as soon as possible. The two don't really mix very well. Risks will have to be taken. The US is in exactly the same dilemma at this point in the pandemic. With 30 million Americans now on unemployment benefit, that sort of state assistance cannot go on for long. Plus there is another factor to take into account: a lot of people are now fed up with lockdown and desperately want to go back to normal, whatever normal will look like post-Covid-19. Trump is watching China and seeing Beijing getting the Chinese back to work and kick-starting the economy. OK China suffered from the virus earlier than any other country - well of course it started there - but even so, if they can begin driving ahead economically while the US and the rest of the world is still floundering then the balance of power on this planet is going to change quite rapidly. China will rule! President Xi Zinping is not going to take any prisoners, he will see the advantage of being ahead of the field and if anyone is going to exploit that it's him. The world needs to watch out. Even though we are all behind the curve as it were vis a vis China and the pandemic, the US, UK and the whole of Europe need to get moving or suffer the financial consequences. So, Boris, next week when you lay out your phased restriction-lifting programme, you will need to give business and industry and restaurants and hotels and airlines and the tourist industry and shops and schools etc etc a definite timetable for returning to a life that is a helluva lot more normal than today's normal. Most people no doubt just worry about themselves, their families and friends and their jobs. But Boris and his fellow leaders around the world need to worry about China.

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