Boris can't win on the pandemic issue

Boris is to speak to the nation but most of what he is going to say has been leaked already. Such is the way of things these days. So no more Stay at Home slogan but instead Stay Alert which is fairly meaningless. It's a bit like the advice from the police after a terror attack. A police chief comes out and appeals to the public to remain vigilant. It sounds sensible but as everyone knows, how on earth do you remain vigilant if you go about your normal business? Do you go nowhere near where the terror attack took place, or do you watch out for anyone who looks like he could be a terrorist or just avoid anywhere where there are lots of people around? After a day or so vigilance just becomes a shrug of the shoulders. I remember after the July 7 2005 bombings in London I did for several days look out warily for anyone wearing a backpack on the Tube. The London bombers all wore grey back packs containing explosive devices and it made me realise how many thousands of people walk around with very simiar backpacks. It was impossible to consider them all as potential terrorists and after a bit I gave up noticing. After 9/11 whenever I was flying off somewhere I watched everyone in the check-in queue and anyone looking swarthy with a long beard became an instant suspect. It was irrational but perhaps undestandable. That wore off too. Now we have our prime minister about to put us on national Stay Alert status. I suspect it won't have any impact at all. Stay at Home does have impact because it means what it says. There's no ambiguity or flexibility. But Boris can't win this one. He knows he has to give everyone a little hope that things are improving and the only way to do that is to allow people out of their homes more than at present and to encourage people to go back to work if possible. But if there's a surge in new infections he might have to reimpose the Stay at Home slogan. That would, to say the least, be unfortunate. China and South Korea have both suffered upticks in infections after lockdown measures were lifted. The same will probably happen here and in the US where Trump is urging a back-to-work policy. Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary, has warned that the US economy could be permanently damaged unless business gets back to normal soon. So I'm sure that the US will start reopening and there could well be a surge in infections. But I suspect Trump will carry on regardless. Boris will probably do the same unless there is a real risk of the NHS being overwhelmed with new infections. The figures are coming down but we are nowhere near reaching zero. So whatever Boris says tonight it's going to be a gamble. If he gets it right and it works he will be hailed a political hero. If he gets it wrong or everyone ignores him and Covid-19 gets a new lease of life in the UK, he will be blamed. As I said, he can't really win this one. The economy might get a small boost but not nearly enough to save the country from recession. Without question it is not yet time to start planning holidays. There is a long way to go before Covid-19 is no longer the main topic of conversation.