Thursday 16 April 2020

Will Boris or his understudy have the courage (balls) to lift social distancing limits?

It seems the lockdown here in UK is to continue for another three weeks. So, well into May. It's a dire thought. If you're in a comfy roomy house with a garden, then there is no reason to complain too much but living on the 45th floor of a block of flats with no park outside in sight, oh my God another three weeks in that sort of situation must be ghastly to contemplate. The point is the issue about when to scrap lockdown is going to be the toughest decision to make other than the decision to go to war. This country, and every country hit badly by coronavirus, is heading for a deep recession or depression. I'm not sure of the difference. So let's call it a depressing recession. Millions unemployed, businesses going bankrupt, mortgages unpaid and homes being lost, tax receipts rocketing downwards, the government borrowing and borrowing until we owe a helluva lot more in interest than we can cope with. So, to avoid that scenario, this government, every government, has to gamble, yes gamble with people's lives and pick a date when most people can go back to work and the milions claiming unemployment benefit can hunt for jobs or get their old ones back. No country in this current state of flux, facing economic ruin, can afford to stay shut for another two or three months. The UK government scientific adviser Professor Neil Ferguson, who has been responsible for the most alarming predictions about the virus pandemic, has said today that some social distancing restrictions should stay in place until a vaccine is found. That would mean until the end of this year or more likely in the first quarter of 2021. I'm sorry but this is Ferguson at his most gloomy. Step up, man, tell us something more optimistic. The virus has had terrible consequences and those who get its worse version suffer appallingly, much worse than flu, and too often die. Nevertheless, and this might seem harsh, no country can stay on lockdown or even semi-lockdown until a vaccine is found. By then we will all be on our knees. So in the UK it will come down to Boris when he is better, or his understudy Dominic Raab, to take a deep breath and pronounce that after the next three weeks of lockdown are over, the country will be able to look forward to a gradual return to normality and by, say, mid-June, lockdown will be totally lifted. That, of course, will depend on the pressure lifting on the NHS as a result of a persistent drop in the number of infection cases and a dramatic reduction in deaths. If Boris gets it right, and if Trump gets it right, and Macron and all the other leaders, then there will be deafening applause from everyone's open front windows. I don't want to think about the possibility of it all going wrong and the virus returning in full force.

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