Thursday 23 April 2020

What's going on in the world under cover of the coronavirus pandemic?

I'm afraid it's a given that while the whole world is obsessed with the coronavirus pandemic, some parts of the globe will be seeking to exploit this period of time to the maximum. What could be happening that we don't know about? And are the intelligence services able to keep watch on our behalf or are they also stricken with infections and struggling to cope? That's the first thing we don't know because no one is saying, for perhaps understandable reasons. Is, for example the US National Security Agency functionng at maximum potential or are there key gaps in their signals intelligence-gathering because of the absence of crucial employees? Is the CIA overstretched, are Britain's MI5, MI6 and GCHQ coping? The one good thing is that there is no reason to imagine that international terrorists and domestic terrorists are unaffected by the virus spread. Are they also in lockdown and social distancing or is it part of their death-wish ideology that they don't care. The fact is though that in the non-terrorist world we are all in our homes and the streets are nearly empty. So this must be a hindrance to any plots they might be making. Let us hope so, but I'm sure MI5 in the UK is doing its best to monitor the movements of known suspects. But what about state plotting? What is Iran doing with its uranium-enrichment? Is it secretly stepping up the process and is the International Atomic Energy Agency still capable of keeping tabs on what is already a blatant violation of the 2015 nuclear deal signed by Iran, the US (then withdrawn by Trump), Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China? Could that be our next crisis, Iran heading for a bomb hoping no one will notice? China is always difficult to fathom but as it progressively gets back to normal with no more reported deaths from the virus, I can envisage Beijing grabbing what it can while the US and Europe are out of action. Now is their chance to surge forward economically and probably step up their military modernisation programme so that when coronavirus has been dealt with everywhere China will look stronger, more dominating and potentially more threatening in the Asia-Pacific region. Watch out for that, NSA and CIA. Russia has the virus problem and a whole lot of other challenges including a massive drop in oil prices which must be doing long-term damage to its economy. But with Vladimir Putin at the helm, no one should underestimate how he might see opportunities to exploit the huge change in the world. North Korea likewise, although the mysterious disappearance of its leader Kim Jong-un might affect Pyongyang's potential for causing trouble. Meanwhile people are dying from conflict in Syria, Yemen, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan and Myanmar (Burma) without receiving much if any media attention. Now more than ever we will be relying on our intelligence services to keep a daily watch.

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