Thursday 2 April 2020

Under the cover of bad news the US is moving against dictator Maduro

The commander of US Southern Command Admiral Craig Faller is a doubty chap who has forceful views and for a long time he has been calling for tougher action on Venezuela and against the drug traffickers shipping cocaine into America. Now he has got his wish in a double whammy decision by Donald Trump. First, secret closed indictments against Nicolas Maduro, the former bus driver turned president of Venezuela, were unsealed and lo and behold the uninspiring authoritarian politician ruining his country is charged with drug trafficking. Wow. And then,thanks to Admiral Faller's constant requests, the US Navy is moving warships into the region to try and catch the drug-runners using all kinds of sea vessels to smugggle tons of cocaine into the US. Maduro obviously sees this as an attempt to overthrow him. And in a way it is because that's what the White House wants but without actually sending in the Marines to blow him out of office. Identifying him as a narcotics hoodlum and surrounding him with warships to grab his alleged associates as they make millions of dollars transporting drugs into America are two moves intended to put maximum pressure on him. But of course without the resort to force, Maduro will survive. Why? For two reasons: he has the support, military and financial, of Russia and Cuba, and the huge amount of money he is, allegedly, making from the narcotic business is helping him to keep sweet the generals and admirals and police chiefs upon whose loyalty he and his regime depend. They all get fat salaries, and the money is certainly not coming from the treasury coffers because they are running dry. But the vast sums made from drug trafficking, allegedly, are being used to boost the salaries of these top military and police chiefs. It's a vicious circle which the US hasn't really got to grips with, until now. But even the US Navy cannot be everywhere at the same time, and drug boats and mini-submarines will still get through. So, provided the revenue from drug trafficking doesn't get hit too hard it's difficult to see how the tougher approach by the White House will succeed in ousting Maduro. With Russia and Cuba backing him, and that includes Russian Spetnaz special forces and Cuban troops, Maduro will feel safe. An operation like the one in 1989 when US Navy Seals seized Panamanian leader General Manuel Noriega, also charged with being a drug trafficker, would be more of a challenge in Caracas. US special operations troops would find themselves fighting Russians and Cubans. But Maduro cannot feel totally safe. He will have read and read the books and newspaper articles on Operation Just Cause when Noriega was forced to surrender while holing up at the Vatican embassy in Panama City. He must have nightmares in his bed at night about meeting a similar fate. And while the world is traumatised by the coronavirus pandemic, now might be the best time for the US to try and grab Maduro.

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