Who can you trust in this new mad world?

We are all getting buried in dire statistics but which ones can we believe and who can we trust to tell us what is really happening? Donald Trump has today very kindly criticised Boris Johnson for being too slow to react to the coronavirus pandemic in the UK, saying that if he had followed the British prime minister's example it would have been "catastrophic" for the US. Well charming, thank you for your supportive words to your most loyal ally. If Boris is sensible he won't answer back because there is no need. Trump has changed his mind about the seriousness of the virus so many times that I'd be surprised if most Americans have a clue about what is going on in the US, now the worst-affected country in the world. The latest figures I don't understand are the ones declared by the president yesterday which every newspaper has repeated. Based on the latest scientific advice, he said, there could be between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths from the virus in the US. And that's even despite the current scial distancing rules. I'm not blaming Trump for these figures. He just passed on what Dr Anthony Fauci, a key member of his coronavirus task force, said, based on the latest modelling. Trump further warned that the next two weeks were going to be very painful. But what I want to know is: the current fatality total in the US from coronavirus is 3,606, as of last night, so can it really be possible that the death rate will climb to 100,000 and way beyond over the next few weeks? What is this modelling? How do they work it all out to come up with a total like that? I'm not saying it's wrong, but what is the key modelling assumption that leads to such a huge jump in deaths? There are around 181,000 virus cases in the US, so the number of deaths is relatively low. Dr Fauci who pops up all the time says he hopes it won't get that far and could be much lower if people keep their distance. My unscientific assumption is the following: most people in America, like elsewhere in the world, are sensible and relatively obedient, they do not want to get the virus and definitely don't want to do anything that might lead to their premature death. So on that basis, the number of deaths will rise steadily but not horrendously so until a peak is reached and then the toll will start to decline, hopefully quite rapidly. Trump talks of two painful weeks ahead. But surely he is not suggesting that the figure of 100,000 could be reached in the next two weeks. That could only happen if every American, man, woman and child, emerged from their homes at the same time and held the biggest party ever witnessed. That's not going to happen, so why scare the living daylights out of the population by saying that up to 240,000 could die from coronavirus. Strange, that's almost exactly the same figure that was trotted out by our experts here in the UK. They said that unless social distancing was maintained, up to 260,000 people could die. What's with these alarming statistics? Who are we to believe? We are all leading a bizarre life at the moment, staying at home. Billions of people are staying at home around the world. Why doesn't someone in authority actually say: "Thanks to a very obedient population, unprecedented since the Second World War, we should be on course for reducing the expected number of deaths by a huge margin. Well done everyone."