Sunday 1 March 2020

US Democrats now in a two-horse race

After Joe Biden's comeback-kid success at South Carolina the Democrats are now effectively moving towards a two-horse race: Biden versus Senator Bernie Sanders, centrist against leftist. I bet there is a huge sense of relief in the Democratic Party hierarchy. At last Biden has something to smile about, a huge victory at South Carolina, way past Sanders who came second. We still don't know what impact Mike Bloomberg is going to make when he deigns to appear as a candidate for the first time in the presidential race on March 3, the Super Tuesday 14-state voting day (plus the 15th sector, Democrats Abroad). I suspect that while the former New York City mayor may grab a nice little chunk of votes - and a handful of delegates for the Democratic National Convention in July - his entry is too late. It's now the Bernie and Joe show. Bernie still has more delegates than Joe, but Super Tuesday could change that. This is what the Democratic Party wants. They want Joe, not Bernie. If Bernie wins the nomination, the party will have to grit its teeth and pray. If Joe wins, the party will sleep better at night and dream of a White House takeover. It's probably wrong to make too big a song and dance over Biden's success at South Carolina on Saturday. He was always going to do better there than in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. But the fact is he overwhelmed Sanders and it suddenly made Biden look like a realistic prospect for the White House, rather than a no-hoper, beaten by an older man with very different ideas to his own. Sanders will still feel confident and there seems to be no slowing down in the mass of donations he is getting. He was bound to falter at one or other of the states still to vote and South Carolina had looked like a fingers-crossed moment for him. For Biden it was vital to win big in South Carolina. Otherwise the American press would have written him off. Now its neck-and-neck Bernie and Joe and all the rest are also rans. It must be very dispiriting for the likes of Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. How much longer can they hold on to their dream? Tom Steyer, the very-long-shot other billionaire in the race, did pretty well in South Carolina but he could read the omens and opted out. Super Tuesday will ruin other candidates' day. Certainly Klobuchar and maybe Warren. Depends a bit on Bloomberg. Meanwhile Joe Biden is a new man. I wonder if Donald Trump cares!

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