Tuesday 3 March 2020

Political careers now rest on how coronavirus is tackled

Boris Johnson has come out with an apocalyptic view of the worst-case scenario for the coronavirus threat: troops on the streets, no police to fight crime, one in five workers ill at home, schools closed, concerts cancelled, all-but-essential travel frowned on. The trouble with these sort of predictions is that it generates panic. Supermarket shelves are empyting, face mask purchases have rocketed, thousands of planned flights are being cancelled. And there are just 51 cases in this country. I realise if you're the prime minister you don't want to be caught out taking minimal steps and pretending it's all overblown. But the picture now painted for us Brits is so dire that it seems the only way to survive is to stuff the fridge with food and milk and lock the front door for the next few months. But then another minister pipes up that everyone should go about their normal business. It's like when there is a terrorist attack. Ministers and police and mayors always say that terrorists will never change our way of life and sure enoough the very next day everything seems to go back to normal. Bridges where the attack took place are opened up again and people trot across without a care in the world. That's good. But now with coronavirus we ae being asked to change our lives. Don't do this, don't do that. President Trump and his coronavirus team are facing the same problem. They want to be seen to be tough but yet not scare everyone. The weird thing is that while all this is going on there are still daily flights coming into Heathrow and Gatwick, and presumably there are hundreds of flights going into the US every day. People travel. They can't be stopped, otherwise every airline will go out of business. So far Washington state on the northwest coast seems to be the most hit by the virus. But there are no China-type images in the US or Britain as yet, showing towns and cities empty of people. Venice is empty which is really sad and that could last for months. But is it actually too dangerous to go to Venice or other cities in northern Italy? For political leaders, what they do now could provide their biggest legacy. Disaster if they fail to stop the virus spreading all over or triumph if they succeed. If the virus takes a real hold on the US, Trump may not win reelection. If Boris's attempts to curb the virus fail he will be blamed. That's why he has delivered this warlike programme of measures today. It sounds over the top but perhaps it's wise to plan for the worst. I'm not going to the shops today!

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