US troops start to leave Afghanistan

Some time ago Mark Esper, US Defence Secretary, said he and the US commanders in Afghanistan would be comfortable if the number of troops there was reduced from 13,000 to 8,600. And that was before any sign of a peace deal with the Taliban. Now, post the Qatar deal, the Pentagon has launched into its first phase of withdrawals because that was part of the agreement. Actually the troops coming home were slotted for pull-out anyway but under previous arrangements they would have been replaced by rotating units from the US. Now they won't be replaced and the numbers will come down by several thousand. The 8,600 to be left in Afghanistan for the next 14 months will largely be involved in counter-terrorist missions, with perhaps 3,500 engaged in training and assisting the Afghan security forces. For the Taliban who have so far done very little except breach the implicit understanding that violence would be dramatically reduced, the withdrawal of US troops will be hailed as the greatest of achievements. The Pentagon promised withdrawals would all be approved depending on the conditions on the ground. But in reality, the total figure is going to come down to 8,600 whether the Taliban keep quiet or go on the rampage. And while the 14-month timetable is also supposed to depend on the Taliban behaving themselves, you can bet your life that Trump, in a second term of office if that is what is going to happen in November, will want to make absolutely sure that every soldier and Marine is out of Afghanistan by the Spring of next year. It's going to be very much part of his reelection message, that he promised to bring all the troops home and, look, unlike his predecessors, that is what he has done. So all 13,000 US troops and all the other coalition partners, such as the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain etc will also have brought the Afghanistan chapter to an end. I think it is the right thing to do, after nearly 19 years, but whether the withdrawal will help to ensure lasting peace and stability in Afghanistan is quite another matter.