Thursday 16 January 2020

Trump impeachment trial ready to go but will it make a difference?

In the view of some Democrats no doubt it has taken three years to bring an impeachment charge against Donald Trump to full trial in the Senate. They wanted to get him removed from the White House from day one of his presidency. But now it really is going to happen, starting next Tuesday. Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, has played the key role, putting off impeachment for as long as she could because she didn't feel it was worth going for such a momentous decision just on the basis of not liking having Trump as president. But Ukraingate made up her mind. As she said yesterday, Trump's alleged pressure on the new Ukrianian president to dig up dirt on Joe Biden or lose nearly $400 million in military aid finally made it impossible to avoid impeachment. The big question now is: if, as expected, Trump is acquitted by a majority Republican Senate after what could be a two-week trial, will it still have a lasting impact on his presidency, on his legacy and on his chances of being reelected in November? Pelosi insists that it will. She says Trump will always be known as the impeachment president. Well, she is right in some ways. Of course everyone in America will remember that Trump faced an impeachment trial. But I guess the response from voters will still be divided down party lines. Democratic voters will say impeachment was justified and Republican voters will say it was all cooked up by the Democrats and of no consequence. Or will they? Depending on what comes out that is new and dramatic during the trial, might some Trump supporters start to think to themselves that maybe having Trump for another four years could be dangerous? Today I think that is unlikely but over the next few months could there be a swing away from Trump? Could milder Republican voters change their allegiance and vote for a Democrat for the good of the country? Again, it seems unlikely. But what if the US goes down the UK path? Strong Labour voters decided to reject Jeremy Corbyn, the out-and-out socialist leader, and went for Boris Johnson because he and only he had promised to take Britain out of the European Union and by January 31. The problem with that possibility is that there is no single issue like Brexit confronting the American voters. Pelosi would like to think that impeachment is the single issue to dissuade voters from giving Trump another four years. But on that she is wrong. In the end once the trial is over, a lot of Americans will just shrug their shoulders and say it was all Washington stuff anyway and get on with our lives. For the Democrats "Impeachment Trump" WILL be a big issue. But unless some Republicans start to feel uncomfortable about voting for Trump again, next week's trial won't necessarily make any difference. And the problem for the Democrats is that if they really hope to persuade Republican votes to change their alliegance who are they going to put up as the man or woman who can beat Trump and be a better president? In the mind of Republicans, I predict, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are too left wing, Pete Buttigieg isn't ready yet for the White House, Mike Bloomberg is just rich and Joe Biden is more of Obama. So no choice for them at all. Reluctantly these Republican Trump doubters will vote for Trump because there is no alternative.

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