The killing of Qassem Soleimani - Trump strikes back

The assassination of Major-General Qassem Soleimani, possibly Donald Trump's most skilled and deadly enemy,is a huge huge deal. It's huge for the Middle East, huge for Trump and his relection hopes and huge for the ayatollahs who have to decide whether to go on a war footing or go quiet. Trump will expect his Big Decision will sweep him back into the White House. Judging by the Republican support he has got today it will certainly get him the impeachment acquittal he is counting on in the Senate later this month. As for the Iranian regime, the killing of Soleimani, right-hand man to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,the Supreme Leader, is inevitably going to lead to some form of revenge attack. Like Mafia gang bosses, the tit-for-tat killings will then continue until it turns to real war or a very tense stand-off. That is the calculation Tehran has to make although the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will be shouting in the ayatollahs' ears that revenge is compulsory or lose face. So it's likely we are in for some bloody action in the Middle East. The US has 5,000 troops in Iraq with 750 more about to arrive and 4,000 ready to move. But we're not talking about a ground war. The troops are just a deterrent. If there is to be further bloodshed on both sides we're talking about rockets and suicide bombs on the one hand and airstrikes on the other. The US will win but at what cost. Trump is desperate to leave the Middle East but, as his predecessors discovered, the US HAS to be in the region. The vacuum left by an absence of American firepower would be seen as a victory for Tehran which would capitalise on what would be perceived as Washington weakness. So Trump is stuck with the reality of Middle East politics. The assassination of Soleimani by two Hellfire missiles will mean that the US and Iran will still be at dangerous loggerheads, if not at war, by the time of the November election date. Good luck to the Democratic challengers. Anything they say to condemn Trump's action will be seen as weakness. They will lose votes in a country that likes to be viewed by the rest of the world as super-tough. Trump, enjoying holiday time at his resort in Florida, will be feeling good right now. His tweet depicting the American flag after the killing of Soleimani should be a warning not just to the ayatollahs but also to other potential enemies. Trump has got the taste for it and will be itching to do it again if provoked.