Sunday 5 January 2020

Iran threatens revenge but does it want to confront the world's military superpower?

Donald Trump is in a superpower mood. He is a president with an unlimited amount of firepower at his beck and call and he has as good as threatened to use it if Tehran so much as dares retaliate for the killing of Major-General Qassem Soleimani. This will not have escaped the ayatollahs in Tehran who are clearly wrestling with the options for striking back at the US. Whatever Iran does, the US can do better and bigger. The long-suffering people of Iran, already angry and desperate over the deteriorating economy, thanks to US sanctions, will hardly welcome war with the United States. Their leaders have chosen a path which has ruined their lives and livelihoods. A huge proportion of the country's funds have been spent on waging proxy wars throughout the Middle East. For them General Soleimani was no hero. He was the man who helped turn Iran into a pariah state. Yes his passing is being mourned by hundreds of thousands and there are cries of death to America, like the bad old days when Iran's autocracy under the Shah was overthrown by the wild revolutionary mullahs. But since then the world has changed dramatically, and Iran has stuttered and stumbled and stamped its foot and attempted to build a powerbase that would dominate the Middle East. But in the end all the ayatollahs and their mischief-making Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force achieved was ruin for their country and a mass spread of violence throughout the region. So do the ayatollahs really want to take on the United States under Donald Trump? Trump WILL hit back again and again until they get the message. That will mean more misery for the Iranian people, more demolition of the Iranian economy and, inevitably, more deaths. It's a grim prospect for Iran, for the Middle East, and for the world. Of course Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, might be tempted to push hard to develop nuclear weapons, believing that that and only that would keep the Americans at bay. But the US will be aware of this option and you can bet that the first sign of Iran attempting to "break out" for a fast move towards a nuclear weapon will bring devastating consequences. Trump will not hesitate and will order bombers to target the nuclear sites. So this is a dangerous moment for Iran. One false move and Trump will pounce. There is no question about that. But can Iran lose face by doing nothing in revenge for the death of Soleimani? Will the ayatollahs surprise us all by opting for peace and diplomacy? I very much fear not.

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