Saturday 18 January 2020

It's Ayatollah Khamenei versus Donald Trump

Ayatollah Khamenei is taking the rhetoric route once favoured by Kim Jong-un, abuse and insult. Clearly it hasn't impressed Trump who has warned the Iranian Supreme Leader to watch his words. The tweeting world we live in is so totally different from the old world. In former days words between leaders were selected very carefully after much internal discussions. There was always the what-if question. If we say this what will be the reaction, if we say that, how will they respond. Not anymore. Khamenei who as Trump put it hasn't been very supreme lately, addressed his seemingly adoring crowd of supporters and described Trump and co as "American clowns". He stood up for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who panicked and shot down a Ukrainian airliner with the loss of 176 lives, praised them indeed and bellowed at the United States. Trump heard and reacted with a tweet to warn the Supreme Leader. This is Trump diplomacy, a tweet with hidden, not that hidden, menace. When you look at the balance in terms of action between the US and Iran, on the American side, they have killed Iran's most powerful and effective military leader and have survived a ballistic-missile attack on a key military base in Iraq. On the Iranian side, they fired 16 ballistic missiles at al Assad airbase in Iraq causing damage but no fatalities, injured 11 American soldiers with concussion, some of which might develop into traumatic brain injury, and killed 176 innocent people by mistaking a passenger plane for a US cruise missile. It seems pretty clear that Khamenei's wild rhetoric is born of failure and defeat while Trump's response is somewhat smug because he knows the US has come out stronger from this whole episode. But that doesn't make it a victory in any sense. Relations between the US and Iran are currently at a dangerous point. Iran is pushing ahead fast with enriching uranium. To what end? Is Iran rushing to get a nuclear bomb? That would be the Supreme Leader's gravest mistake. Trump has said, just as Obama did actually, that Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. I am pretty sure he means it. Can Khamenei take the risk? Please not.

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