Tuesday 31 December 2019

US uses the big stick in Iraq with diplomatically disastrous consequences

The US has held back and held back and held back when provoked by Iran: not launching retaliatory strikes when Iran shot down a hugely expensive drone over international waters in the Gulf, not hitting back when Iranian-inspired or authorised bomb attacks hit shipping in the Gulf waterway, not punishing Tehran with strikes when cruise missiles and drones hit a Saudi oil processing plant. Tehran must have been delighted and made the calculation/miscalculation that Washington was opting for the quiet life and desperately didn't want any more conflict in the Middle East. As a result of this miscalculation, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard bovver boys decided to increase attacks on US forces in Iraq and ordered their proxy Shia militia fighters, bizarrely allied to the Iraqi armed forces, to launch rocket attacks on US/Iraqi bases. In one of the attacks an American contractor was killed and other Americans were wounded. The death of an American always puts things into a different context if you're sitting in the Oval Office in the White House. Restraint was over. Orders were sent to the Pentagon to give 'em hell. Thus, F-15E Strike Eagles were sent to hit five targets in Iraq and Syria, all associated with the Shia militia group known as Kataib Hezbollah. Pentagon officials insisted the retaliation was proportionate. But when a military superpower, the world's only real superpower, takes action against a bunch of extreme militia armed with rockets, it will never seem proportionate, not at least to those targeted by the F-15Es armed with precision-guided missiles. As a result there have been mass protests culminating in the storming of the huge US embassy compound in Baghdad today. While the US retaliatory strikes were understandable and I guess inevitable following the death of the American contractor, did anyone in the Pentagon or State Department warn the White House that airstrikes could have a huge negative impact on relations with the Iraqi government? The government of Adil Abdul-Mahdi relies on both the US and Iran to prop it up. It's a three-way disaster marriage. The Iraqi prime minister pleaded with Mark Esper, US defence secretary, not to go ahead with the strikes after being given 30 minutes' notice but apparently didn't tip off Tehran. That underlines the tortuous diplomacy he is faced with every day, trying to please both the US and Iran at the same time. After the strikes he accused the US of breaching Iraqi sovereignty. He probably hoped that might appease his Iranian backers. But it just emphasised the weakness of his position as Iraqi leader. He failed to stop the Iranian-backed militia from attacking US forces and he failed to stop the US from attacking Hezbollah bases. Twenty-five Hezbollah fighters are dead as a consequence. No wonder Trump wants to get the hell out of Iraq. It's a country doomed to face conflict in one form or other for the foreseeable future. Now if Saddam Hussein was still in charge........

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