The world waits for Kim Jong-un to do something stupid

FULLER VERSION OF MY STORY IN THE TIMES TODAY: The United States is expecting North Korea to test a new missile capability if it goes ahead with the threatened “Christmas gift” to pressure Washington into agreeing economic concessions. US surveillance aircraft and intelligence-gathering satellites are focused on pinpointing the first sign of ballistic-missile launch activity, as the Pyongyang-imposed end-of-year deadline nears. US forces in the region are also on high alert. There is increasing concern throughout America’s intelligence community over what North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be planning and whether it will be a significant development or a familiar test launch dressed up as something new. “If North Korea does something new and different to try and put more leverage on the US that will really ratchet things up,” a US intelligence source said. The source acknowledged that North Korea was expected to try and prove it had made advances in missile capability. “They are clearly trying to achieve more accuracy and reliability with their ICBMs [intercontinental ballistic missiles] and to make advances with technologies such as self-propelled missile launchers,” the source said. Two static rocket engine tests carried out by North Korea on December 7 and 13 at the Sohae satellite launch site in the west of the country were aimed at “trying to show they had developed new capabilities to step up leverage”. The new more powerful engine could have been an advanced version of the one used for North Korea’s Hwaseong-15 ICBM still in development, according to Jane’s Missiles & Rockets. A test of the Hwasong -15 in November 2017 reached an altitude of 2,780 miles and flew for 590 miles before landing in the sea off Japan. But it is believed to have a potential range of more than 8,000 miles, and even longer if launched on a flatter trajectory, bringing the whole of the US within reach. A former senior Pentagon official said that apart from greater accuracy and range for its missiles, North Korea had other significant barriers to overcome. Minituarisation of the nuclear warhead was the biggest technological challenge. “It’s one thing to detonate a nuclear weapon, it’s quite another to make it small and rugged enough to survive being launched on a ballistic missile,” the former official said. In addition, North Korea would want to prove whether a warhead re-entering Earth’s atmosphere from space would be sufficiently resistant to the intense heat. “But this is far less of a technical challenge than minituarisation,” he said. A new test launch of the Hwaseong-15 could fatally damage President Trump’s charm offensive with Chairman Kim who had promised to suspend long-range missile-testing when the two leaders met for their first summit in Singapore in June last year. Two subsequent summits between the two leaders, in Hanoi in February and, historically, at the Korean demilitarised zone at Panmunjom in June, failed to advance Washington’s hopes of reaching any form of deal to reduce and finally eliminate the nuclear threat posed by North Korea. With the total breakdown in talks on denuclearisation, Pyongyang appears to have turned its back on Mr Trump and his state department negotiating team, headed by Stephen Biegun. The US special envoy’s appeal to restart talks last week was snubbed by Pyongyang. Pentagon chiefs have insisted that the US military is fully prepared for any type of response in the event of a provocative move by North Korea. But Mark Esper, US defence secretary, has stuck to the Washington position which currently places all the focus on diplomacy to resolve the confrontation with Pyongyang. A new ICBM missile test could lead to more sanctions and a demand from Washington for an emergency meeting of the United Nations security council. The so-called “bloody nose” strategy in which the US would launch limited military strikes to punish North Korea has been kept under wraps since it was first mooted more than 20 months ago, and seems an unlikely option.