Nato's future at risk from internal cracks and Putin malevolence

FULL VERSION OF MY NATO PIECE FOR THE TIMES TODAY: Internal “cracks” in Nato and doubts raised about the alliance’s survival present a gift to President Putin who is determined to undermine the 29-member organisation as it approaches its 70th anniversary, a former top US commander in Europe warns. “There are a lot of factors weighing on the Nato alliance, including nations that are unwilling to invest properly and nations that want to see a more European alliance less dominated by the US,” General Philip Breedlove, supreme allied commander Europe (Saceur) from 2013-2016, old The Times. He pointed to the challenge of having Nato nations turning elsewhere for their weapon systems rather than from within the alliance, an implicit reference to Turkey, a key ally which has purchased Russia’s SS-400 air defence system despite appeals from the US to reject the deal with Moscow. “This does present problems for the alliance, creating cracks and fissures that Mr Putin encourages and then exploits to try and tear our alliance apart,” he said. “We face many challenges, to include the rise in Russia’s aggressiveness, and the bottom line is Nato is more important than it ever was,” he said. “When it comes to asymmetric measures [such as sending Russian mercenary troops to eastern Ukraine and Libya and elsewhere, and Moscow’s involvement in cyber warfare ] the tools are not surprising, what is surprising is how brazen Russia is in their use. It’s scary how brazen they are,” General Breedlove said. He described these Russian interventions as “actions below the line”. “In the Cold War we understood our opponent. We knew where the lines were and the ground rules. Now we don’t understand where the lines are, ” he said. This was why Nato, which had prevented large-scale war in Europe since the end of the Second World War, remained a vital alliance. “Article 5 [under which each alliance state is committed to considering an armed attack on one member in Europe or North America an attack against them all] is still the essence of Nato,” he said. General Breedlove’s conviction is that Article 5 remains the central principle of the alliance. This is hard to rectify with the highly controversial remark by President Macron in an interview with The Economist this month in which he said Nato was suffering from “brain death”. “What will Article 5 mean tomorrow?” the French leader posed. General Breedlove said there were “a lot of people saying a lot of things but we live as an alliance by what nations do, not what they say”. His remarks were echoed by General Jim Jones, Saceur from 2003-2006 and President Obama’s first national security adviser (2009-2010). “Macron’s remark about Nato suffering from brain death was unfortunate. For a head of state to bring in this kind of discord on the eve of the 70th anniversary of one of the greatest alliances in the world is disappointing,” he told The Times. “The new line of defence for the alliance today starts at the Black Sea and the Baltic states rather than Germany. We have rotational forces in Romania, Bulgaria and Poland, “ General Jones sad. Mr Putin had found this “objectionable” and Russia had made “skillful use of social media to create the impression that Nato is irrelevant”. General Jones warned that it would be “bad form” if any head of state” tried to spoil the 70th anniversary celebrations. “Nato doesn’t deserve that,” he said. General Breedlove pointed out that while Mr Macron was casting doubt on Nato’s future as a US-dominated alliance, France was, for example, heavily dependent on American military support for its counter-terrorism operations in North Africa, including Mali, Chad and Niger. “We’re assisting them with transport aircraft, refuelling tankers and intelligence reconnaissance,” he said. Perhaps more crucially, President Trump has shown antipathy towards Nato in numerous critical comments since he took office. However, General Breedlove said the US had significantly increased its investment in Europe every year “since Russia invaded eastern Ukraine”. This was over and above what had originally been planned, and included both forces and investments. Mr Trump has frequently attacked European members of the alliance for failing to increase defence spending. But General Breedlove said Mr Trump’s three predecessors had all done exactly the same thing. “But this is the first president to get any results,” he said. Official Nato figures show there has been a real increase in defence spending in Europe in recent years: 4.19 per cent in 2017 and an estimated increase in 2018 and 2019 of 5.21 per cent and 4.26 per cent respectively.